Opportunity in Wellington (again)

Building consents by Region

In my last post I compared building consents with a past average. I thought that comparison could be improved so here is one based on the number of households in the 2013 census. ie for most regions, there were less than 1.5% consents per household. That was clearly low compared to the last 20 years which seems to sit about 2% for most regions - recall that in 2000 I am comparing to households in 2013, so this number is slightly depressed, making the 2013 number look even smaller. I was able to do this for all of NZ, so that also gave me a usefull total NZ line.

BTW, I had to remove Queenstown from this chart to bring the scale down - it sits at close to 10% and follows an independent pattern.


Wellington is different

The standout is still Wellington. Recall that this is consents, so Tauranga and Hamilton are showing a recent large increase, but the construction has not yet finished so the increase in supply to match demand has not yet happened. Christchurch on the other hand is winding down and so are prices as supply starts exceeding demand.


Wellington Urban Areas

This led me to wonder where in Wellington, since I am local and could expect to know about any changes - and am only aware of increasing apartments in Petone (part of Lower Hutt). Apartment building in Wellington appears to be running at about the same level as in the past and the chart supports this.

Wellington Urban AreasThe chart below shows the city compared with urban areas. - there is no outstanding area, lack of growth seems to be consistent across the board. However, there is a sudden change in Lower Hutt, but that is after a long period of almost no growth - a feature locals are very aware of due to a council intent on doing nothing to save money.

These charts strongly suggest, along with the charts on rental listings here, that there is an excellent opportunity for development in Wellington right now

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Jonette 2011