Sales Listings Consistent with Recovery?

Sales listings for the full Wellington Urban area over the last four years are consistent with a major change - probably due to the recession, that completed in late 2010. Supply has been consistent with normal seasonal patterns since.

The chart below is a sample of listings each week on Trademe. Seasonal variations are now extremely predictable, having followed the same actual sales listings for a little over two years. The data extends back to late 2008, when the same pattern as now was evident. Starting in February 2009, listings dropped by a consistent 1000 homes between may 2009 and April 2010. The recovery to what appears to be a "Normal" listing was completed by September 2010 and listings have followed an exact copy of the previous year ever since.

From this data, we can expect listings will reach 4600 in early December.

This pattern is very different for rental listings, which have taken much longer to settle;

2012 has no resemblance to previous years, as listings hover around a record 2000 homes. The RWC had a temporary impact in 2011, artificially lowering listings for the second half of the year and it could be that this event is hiding a more consistent pattern.

However, rental listings have almost doubled since 2008! Is this more properties being rented, more turnover or more advertising of rental properties? Without the household survey being repeated in 2011, no-one can be sure.


Jonette 2011