Wellington little

I have only invested in Wellington, so I have a lot more data on Wellington than other regions.

In contrast to Auckland, Wellington is short of private rental properties and has been for over 2 years. 2019 continues this trend, even dropping below 2018 for most of this year, however late in the year this changed.

This blog post shows the size of the property shortfall, regularly updated.

Anecdotally in this tight market, Facebook requests for accomodation from desperate tenants may be resulting in tenancies not being advertised on Trademe, losing a great resource but I believe this is just during the University return period, ie January and February only.

Turnover (Speed of Listing Updates)

I cannot put turnover as a percentage on the same chart so have indexed it to 1000 in 2009 in the chart below, with New Bonds, Listings and a calculated Turnover (new bonds/Listings) to show tends. As you can see a significant change occurred in 2016, starting upwards in 2013-4 and Wellington has not changed from this. The chart looks like Auckland since 2017. Is this due to apartment dominance finally happening in Wellington? Recall the inner city population in Wellington was only 4-5000 in the late 90’s.

Turnover dipped during 2018, but is back to historical levels, I can only speculate why.

Regional Details

I have data back to 2009 for the Territorial Authorities in Wellington, but publish only since 2015 due to the changing advertising practices prior to 2015, including double entries for different suburbs - Trademe do not describe suburbs well.

Rents as % of income in Wellington

The following chart is from Quarterly data fromTerritorial Authoritiesand shows that rents outside the city centre stay below the National average, however Wellington has reduced to match the National average from 2014, with the shortage of properties is this about to change? Note the last two data points are based on an estimate of household income increasing 3% for this year, the data I used does not come out until Sept 2019.

The risk of this comparison is that suburbs are often dormitory only so are not representative of the city as a whole.

The National line is compared to the National Average Household income.

Wellington Sales Listings (the only region I have this data)

And there's more - sales listings in Wellington. Notice the recent upswing as Wellington reaches the end of the cycle, then followed by a reducing oversupply. Why? Has the interest rate drop caused another run on properties? Certainly anecdotally it has, we lost two tenants recently to them purchasing there own home.

Jonette 2011