Wellington Market Racing Ahead

I decided that my recording of listings only was potentially misleading if the turnover accelerated to a point that my monthly listings was being updated faster than monthly. I suspected this was so recently when Trademe stated they had fewer listings this year than last. So I sought some data on the number of properties let each month and of course MBIE publishes bonds data back to 1993.

However there are two caveats:

  1. Not all bonds are registered with MBIE, but lets assume most are.
  2. Not all properties are advertised on Trademe, but after trialling advertising on Facebook last month, I expect most to be.

So the difference between these two numbers will represent those properties advertised, and bond registered within a month and so not adding to my level of inventory - i.e. a turnover measurement. I calculate the ration of the two and add that line as an Index (in Black) to show the relative turnover - notice where bonds=listings it shows 1000 - i.e. 100%, Datawrapper does not let me have two axes.

This shows up quite well and fits the news of two things, the difficulty of getting a rental in Wellington AND Trademe’s comments on demand, which I initially thought were spurious, but they measure turnover direct, not current listings like me. i.e. their numbers are like the MBIE Bonds, but equally do not measure the left over inventory.

here is the chart with Bonds & Listings averaged over 12 months and moved forward by 6 months to correspond to actual timings:

The thick black line is running at 2000, i.e. twice the size of the listings, so that suggests there are twice as many listed and rented within the month as listed at any time. This speed has been consistent since mid 2016!

Anecdotally, this is exactly what is happening. Our latest rental not only included an excellent range of tenants in the first week, but also a long list of people pleading special cases to get a tenancy. This is on properties well into the suburbs that back in 2010 to 2014 took up to 5 weeks to tenant.

Please leave comments, that may help me think about more options for research

Updated to clarify the chart using more moving averaging - i.e. getting rid of monthly variations

Jonette 2011